TurbineHub Repower Forecast

Updated: Mar 21

Wind Repowering -a nexus of clean energy production, alternative private capital, reliance on existing infrastructure, and importance of governmental permitting


TurbineHub's Proprietary forecast of future repowered wind energy power generation capacity


Basis for TurbineHub's Repower Forecast: Terminal Degradation


Figure 1. The Results of the Fixed-Effects Regression of US Wind Farms

Shown for Old (n = 186) and New Plants (n = 731) Separately

Source: Hamilton, S. D., Millstein, D., Bolinger, M., Wiser, R., & Jeong, S. (2020). How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States? Joule, 4(5), 1004–1020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.005



Figure 2. Multivariate Regression Shows Some Limited Correlation between Degradation Rates and Turbine, Plant, and Site Characteristics

Source: Hamilton, S. D., Millstein, D., Bolinger, M., Wiser, R., & Jeong, S. (2020). How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States? Joule, 4(5), 1004–1020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.005



Figure 3. Impact on Performance Trends (b1) of the Product of the Regression Coefficients and the Typical Range of Values for Numeric Variables


Source: Hamilton, S. D., Millstein, D., Bolinger, M., Wiser, R., & Jeong, S. (2020). How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States? Joule, 4(5), 1004–1020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.005



Figure 4. Regression Equation for Capacity Factor as a function of time

Source: Hamilton, S. D., Millstein, D., Bolinger, M., Wiser, R., & Jeong, S. (2020). How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States? Joule, 4(5), 1004–1020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.005



Figure 5. TurbineHub Repower Capacity Forecast

Starting January 2022

Sources: ACPA, USGS, FAA, TurbineHub.com, BLM, Esri, Maxar, EIA



Figure 6. EIA Total Wind Energy Generation Capacity Additions Forecast



Figure 7. Repowered Wind Farm Capacity by COD Year

Sources: ACPA, USGS, FAA, TurbineHub.com, EIA


Figure 8. Non-Repowered Wind Farm Capacity by COD Year

Sources: ACPA, USGS, FAA, TurbineHub.com, EIA


Example of a Prime Repower Candidate

Gray County Wind Energy, Kansas (NextEra Energy)

Total Capacity: 112.2 MW

Number of Turbines: 170

Turbine Make/Model: Vestas North America V47

Power Purchaser: Kansas City Power & Light

Power Purchase Agreement(s)

2012-2016: $25/MWH

2016-2031: $22/MWH


Kansas wind industry has big questions to answer to keep growing after 20 years | KMUW


Figure 9. Gray County Wind Net Generation and Kansas Average Price of electricity


Figure 10. Map of Gray County Wind (Gray County, Kansas)

Using TurbineHub.com




Figure 11. Gray County Wind Monthly Capacity Factor

Starting January 2003


Sources: EIA, TurbineHub.com


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