Wind Repowering -a nexus of clean energy production, alternative private capital, reliance on existing infrastructure, and importance of governmental permitting
TurbineHub's Proprietary forecast of future repowered wind energy power generation capacity
Basis for TurbineHub's Repower Forecast: Terminal Degradation
Figure 1. The Results of the Fixed-Effects Regression of US Wind Farms
Shown for Old (n = 186) and New Plants (n = 731) Separately
Source: Hamilton, S. D., Millstein, D., Bolinger, M., Wiser, R., & Jeong, S. (2020). How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States? Joule, 4(5), 1004–1020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.005
Figure 2. Multivariate Regression Shows Some Limited Correlation between Degradation Rates and Turbine, Plant, and Site Characteristics
Source: Hamilton, S. D., Millstein, D., Bolinger, M., Wiser, R., & Jeong, S. (2020). How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States? Joule, 4(5), 1004–1020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.005
Figure 3. Impact on Performance Trends (b1) of the Product of the Regression Coefficients and the Typical Range of Values for Numeric Variables
Source: Hamilton, S. D., Millstein, D., Bolinger, M., Wiser, R., & Jeong, S. (2020). How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States? Joule, 4(5), 1004–1020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.005
Figure 4. Regression Equation for Capacity Factor as a function of time
Source: Hamilton, S. D., Millstein, D., Bolinger, M., Wiser, R., & Jeong, S. (2020). How Does Wind Project Performance Change with Age in the United States? Joule, 4(5), 1004–1020. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.04.005
Figure 5. TurbineHub Repower Capacity Forecast
Starting January 2022
Sources: ACPA, USGS, FAA, TurbineHub.com, BLM, Esri, Maxar, EIA
Figure 6. EIA Total Wind Energy Generation Capacity Additions Forecast
Figure 7. Repowered Wind Farm Capacity by COD Year
Sources: ACPA, USGS, FAA, TurbineHub.com, EIA
Figure 8. Non-Repowered Wind Farm Capacity by COD Year
Sources: ACPA, USGS, FAA, TurbineHub.com, EIA
Example of a Prime Repower Candidate
Gray County Wind Energy, Kansas (NextEra Energy)
Total Capacity: 112.2 MW
Number of Turbines: 170
Turbine Make/Model: Vestas North America V47
Power Purchaser: Kansas City Power & Light
Power Purchase Agreement(s)
2012-2016: $25/MWH
2016-2031: $22/MWH
Figure 9. Gray County Wind Net Generation and Kansas Average Price of electricity
Figure 10. Map of Gray County Wind (Gray County, Kansas)
Using TurbineHub.com
Figure 11. Gray County Wind Monthly Capacity Factor
Starting January 2003
Sources: EIA, TurbineHub.com